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COVID-19 SIR Forecast in Italy

Description

This is my forecast about COVID-19 disease in Italy

  • The forecast is tuned by the last data of today and it'll update daily.
  • The forecast is based on SIR epidemic model, a mathematical model to describe a spread of a disease in a population, where a I built the model and tuned the parameters to fit the current behavior of spread.
  • The circle represents observed data coming from "data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard" and aligned with the one of Protezione Civile.
  • The star represents the forecast predicted by the model.

Forecast

  • The timeline starts at t=24/02/2020
22/03 23/03
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24/03 25/03
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26/03 27/03
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28/03 29/03
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30/03 31/03
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01/04 02/04
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03/04 04/04
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05/04 06/04
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07/04 08/04
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09/04 10/04
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From here we will show SIRD model and the Daily Increment

11/04 11/04
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18/05 18/05
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This is a forecast about CODIV-19 in Italy

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