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llm-forecasting

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chirindaopensource / forecasting_macroeconomic_scenarios_synthetic_llm_personas

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End-to-End Python replication of Iadisernia & Camassa’s LLM macroeconomic forecasting methodology (ICAIF 2025). Implements: 2,368 synthetic economist profiles, 120,000+ GPT-4o forecasts across 50 European Central Bank (ECB) SPF rounds, a rigorous ablation study with Monte Carlo & binomial hypothesis testing.

natural-language-processing async-python hypothesis-testing time-series-analysis computational-economics central-banking nlp-pipeline forecast-evaluation ablation-study openai-api prompt-engineering economic-research research-replication macroeconomic-forecasting ecb-spf llm-forecasting gpt-4-or-gpt-5 persona-based-prompting survey-of-professional-forecasters
  • Updated Nov 6, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

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