Dancing Numbers

Logistic growth applied to Covid-19

A naive approach to predict the spread of virus

• The program is written in Java using some routines from Numerical Recipes. Due to license restrictions these files are not included. You will either need to buy these files (see subfolder com/nr/info.txt) or read one of the books to key them in manually.

  Dependencies

  • Numerical Recipes
  • JFreeChart Licence: LGPL

• The main program is within Frames.java.

• To generate a mpeg-Video you will need ffmpeg and a bash shell to run the script create2 in subfolder mov

• To watch some results point your browser to https://youtu.be/uk3x-sr6MQQ

• Finally a simple gui to the algorithm is available https://github.com/veitner/dancingNumbers/releases.

Happy coding and stay healthy

April 2020, V. Eitner

PS:
A similar approach can be viewed at https://publichealth.gsu.edu/research/coronavirus/.
And there is a preprint of a paper describing the fit of the Richardson-Equation online available https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.05681.pdf.