code for post

scripts/post-engagement.py

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+"""Making use of the tool to analyze post engagement on LinkedIn
+
+Incorporate prior knowledge of the average engagement rate on LinkedIn into 
+the few data points I have from my posts. Then, use the model to make some visuals.
+
+"""
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+
+from conjugate.distributions import Beta
+from conjugate.models import binomial_beta
+
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+from matplotlib.ticker import PercentFormatter
+
+
+# Data from my LinkedIn posts
+df = pd.DataFrame(
+    {
+        "impressions": [
+            1769,
+            1585,
+            3803,
+            6415,
+        ],
+        "reactions": [
+            43,
+            22,
+            40,
+            81,
+        ],
+        "label": [
+            "1: lc-announcement",
+            "2: lc-2-weeks-before",
+            "3: lc-after-talk",
+            "4: conjugate-models",
+        ],
+    }
+)
+IMPRESSIONS = df["impressions"].to_numpy()
+REACTIONS = df["reactions"].to_numpy()
+LABELS = df["label"].to_numpy()
+
+N_POSTS = len(df)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    # Took the tech engagement rate from this post:
+    # https://blog.hootsuite.com/average-engagement-rate/
+    # 1.73% engagement rate
+    linkedin_average_rate = 0.0173
+    # centered around average but with some uncertainty
+    prior = Beta.from_mean(mean=linkedin_average_rate, alpha=1)
+    # Model for the data
+    posterior: Beta = binomial_beta(n=IMPRESSIONS, x=REACTIONS, beta_prior=prior)
+    # Inference
+    n_posterior_samples = 5_000
+    rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
+    samples = posterior.dist.rvs(size=(n_posterior_samples, N_POSTS), random_state=rng)
+
+    # Figures with much more code
+    fig, axes = plt.subplots(ncols=3)
+    fig.suptitle("Post Engagement Analysis with Conjugate Models")
+
+    # Engagement rate from the model
+    ax = axes[0]
+    ax = posterior.set_bounds(0, 0.05).plot_pdf(label=LABELS, ax=ax)
+    ax.axvline(
+        linkedin_average_rate, color="black", ymax=0.05, label="LinkedIn Average"
+    )
+    ax.legend(title="Post")
+    ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(PercentFormatter(1))
+    ax.set(
+        xlabel="Engagement Rate",
+        title="Post Engagement Rate",
+    )
+
+    # Difference between two posts
+    ax = axes[1]
+    diff = samples[:, 0] - samples[:, -1]
+    ax.hist(diff, alpha=0.5, edgecolor="black")
+    ax.axvline(0, color="black", linestyle="--", label="same engagement rate")
+    ax.set(
+        xlabel="Difference in Engagement Rate",
+        ylabel="# of Posterior Samples",
+        title="Engagement between first and most recent post",
+    )
+    ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(PercentFormatter(1))
+    ax.legend()
+
+    # Most engaged post
+    ax = axes[2]
+    most_engaged = pd.Series(np.argmax(samples, axis=1))
+    most_engaged.value_counts(normalize=True).reindex(df.index).plot.bar(ax=ax)
+    ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(PercentFormatter(1))
+    ax.set_xticklabels(df.index + 1, rotation=0)
+    ax.set(
+        xlabel="Post",
+        ylabel="% of Posterior Samples",
+        title="Most Engaged Post",
+    )
+    plt.show()