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[Flock Action] Mating Recommendations — 10 ewes for 2026 breeding season#5

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copilot/update-mating-recommendations
Feb 9, 2026
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[Flock Action] Mating Recommendations — 10 ewes for 2026 breeding season#5
zircote merged 3 commits intomainfrom
copilot/update-mating-recommendations

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Copilot AI commented Feb 9, 2026

Mating Recommendations for 12 Ewes — 2026 Breeding Season

  • Review repository structure and existing report patterns
  • Call NSIP MCP tools to get details for each ewe
  • Analyze ewe genetics and identify breeding priorities
  • Evaluate on-farm sire (6402382024NCS310) and identify father-daughter conflicts
  • Create comprehensive report.md with ewe profiles and breeding strategy
  • Create data.csv with machine-readable mating recommendations
  • Document inbreeding concerns and external ram requirements
  • Final review and quality check
  • Store lessons learned for future breeding analyses
  • Address PR review feedback - fix contradictions and improve machine readability

Summary

Created a comprehensive mating recommendations report for 10 Katahdin ewes from Beyond Blessed Farm. The analysis identified:

  • 3 critical father-daughter relationships that require external rams (FLE011, FLE029, FLE008 all sired by NCS310)
  • 4 high-growth ewes recommended for retention as breeding stock (FLE087, FLE082, FLE047, FLE024)
  • 1 low-growth ewe (FLE002) requiring high-growth ram or culling consideration
  • On-farm sire evaluation: 6402382024NCS310 proven ram suitable for 6 of 10 ewes

Recent Updates (addressing PR review)

Fixed all inconsistencies and formatting issues:

  • Added issue link (Closes Weekly Farm Check - Week 6 #3) to report header
  • Removed contradictory NCS310 breeding recommendations from father-daughter profiles
  • Updated COI table with proper traffic-light indicators and percentages
  • Restructured CSV for machine readability with dedicated requires_external_sire column
  • Clarified action items and breeding priorities

Deliverables:

  • reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/report.md (391 lines)
  • reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/data.csv (11 rows, machine-readable)
Original prompt

This section details on the original issue you should resolve

<issue_title>2026 Mating Recomendations</issue_title>
<issue_description>### Action

Mating Recommendations — optimal sire pairings per ewe

LPN IDs

6401492020FLE249
6401492022FLE002
6401492023FLE078
6401492025FLE011
6401492025FLE024
6401492025FLE029
6401492025FLE047
6401492025FLE082
6401492025FLE087
6401492025FLE008
6402382024NCS310
6401492025FLE141

Trait Weights

No response

Sort Trait

No response

Notes

No response</issue_description>

Comments on the Issue (you are @copilot in this section)


💡 You can make Copilot smarter by setting up custom instructions, customizing its development environment and configuring Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers. Learn more Copilot coding agent tips in the docs.

Co-authored-by: zircote <307960+zircote@users.noreply.github.com>
Copilot AI changed the title [WIP] Add optimal sire pairings for ewes [Flock Action] Mating Recommendations — 10 ewes for 2026 breeding season Feb 9, 2026
Copilot AI requested a review from zircote February 9, 2026 13:59
@zircote zircote marked this pull request as ready for review February 9, 2026 14:00
Copilot AI review requested due to automatic review settings February 9, 2026 14:00
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Pull request overview

Adds a new flock-action deliverable under reports/ documenting 2026 breeding-season mating recommendations for 10 Katahdin ewes, including sire strategy guidance and a machine-readable export.

Changes:

  • Created a detailed mating recommendations report with ewe profiles, breed context, and action items.
  • Added a CSV export of ewe/sire EBVs plus predicted offspring EBVs and mating status flags.

Reviewed changes

Copilot reviewed 2 out of 2 changed files in this pull request and generated 9 comments.

File Description
reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/report.md New markdown report summarizing ewe EBVs, suggested pairings, and inbreeding warnings for 2026 matings.
reports/2026-02-09-mating-recommendations/data.csv New CSV export of the recommendations and predicted offspring EBVs for downstream use.

Comment on lines 206 to 207
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.03, WWT +1.97, YWT +2.33
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This ewe is later flagged as a daughter of NCS310 (father–daughter mating must be avoided), but her profile still recommends breeding to NCS310 and includes predicted offspring values for that pairing. Update this section to recommend an external ram (and remove/replace the NCS310 midparent predictions) to avoid contradictory guidance.

Suggested change
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.03, WWT +1.97, YWT +2.33
- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external Katahdin ram with strong growth and fertility EBVs and a **Green** COI rating when checked against this ewe.
- **Notes**: Do **not** mate this ewe to 6402382024NCS310, as she is his daughter; select an external sire using current NSIP data, and interpret predicted offspring EBVs based on the chosen ram’s profile.

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Fixed FLE008 profile to recommend external ram only and removed NCS310 midparent predictions in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 227 to 229
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.03, WWT +1.17, YWT +2.33

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This ewe is later flagged as a daughter of NCS310 (father–daughter mating must be avoided), but her profile still recommends breeding to NCS310 and includes predicted offspring values for that pairing. Update this section to recommend an external ram (and remove/replace the NCS310 midparent predictions) to avoid contradictory guidance.

Suggested change
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.03, WWT +1.17, YWT +2.33
- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external ram (not 6402382024NCS310) due to close sire–daughter relationship and inbreeding risk.

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Fixed FLE029 profile to recommend external ram only and removed contradictory NCS310 guidance in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 248 to 249
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.12, WWT +1.71, YWT +1.61
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This ewe is later flagged as a daughter of NCS310 (father–daughter mating must be avoided), but her profile still recommends breeding to NCS310 and includes predicted offspring values for that pairing. Update this section to recommend an external ram (and remove/replace the NCS310 midparent predictions) to avoid contradictory guidance.

Suggested change
- **Primary option**: 6402382024NCS310
- **Predicted offspring**: BWT -0.12, WWT +1.71, YWT +1.61
- **Primary option**: Use an unrelated external Katahdin ram (NSIP-ranked, Green COI) to introduce new genetics and avoid inbreeding with 6402382024NCS310, who is her sire.
- **Notes**: Do **not** mate this ewe to 6402382024NCS310 (father–daughter mating). When selecting an external ram, target below-average BWT with above-average WWT/YWT and maintain or improve NLB.

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Fixed FLE011 profile with detailed external ram guidance and explicit father-daughter warning in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 1 to 7
# Mating Recommendations Report — 2026 Breeding Season

**Date**: February 9, 2026
**Action**: Mating Recommendations — Optimal Sire Pairings
**Breed**: Katahdin
**Animals Analyzed**: 10 females (2 males excluded from mating analysis)
**Database Last Updated**: November 21, 2025
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report.md headers for flock-action reports are expected to include a link back to the originating issue (e.g., Closes #N). This report is missing that line, which breaks the established report pattern in other reports and the documented workflow.

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Added Closes #3 link to report header in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 296 to 301
| Ewe | Relationship to NCS310 | COI | Status |
|-----|------------------------|-----|--------|
| 6401492025FLE011 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE029 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE008 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| All others | Unrelated or distant | Low | **Safe to proceed** |
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Flock-action formatting rules call for traffic-light COI indicators (Green/Yellow/Red). This section uses "Low" and "N/A" instead of providing a rating (and a coefficient where applicable), which makes it harder to interpret risk consistently across reports/CSVs.

Suggested change
| Ewe | Relationship to NCS310 | COI | Status |
|-----|------------------------|-----|--------|
| 6401492025FLE011 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE029 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE008 | Same sire (NCS310) | N/A | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| All others | Unrelated or distant | Low | **Safe to proceed** |
| Ewe | Relationship to NCS310 | COI (predicted) | Status |
|-----|------------------------|-----------------|--------|
| 6401492025FLE011 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE029 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| 6401492025FLE008 | Same sire (NCS310) | ≥ 25.0% — Red | **Avoid — father-daughter mating** |
| All others | Unrelated or distant | < 6.25% — Green | **Safe to proceed** |

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Updated COI table with traffic-light indicators: Red (≥ 25.0%) for father-daughter matings, Green (< 6.25%) for safe pairings in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 1 to 11
ewe_lpn,ewe_dob,ewe_bwt,ewe_wwt,ewe_ywt,ewe_pwwt,ewe_nlb,recommended_sire_lpn,sire_bwt,sire_wwt,sire_ywt,sire_pwwt,sire_nlb,predicted_bwt,predicted_wwt,predicted_ywt,predicted_pwwt,predicted_nlb,coi,mating_status,notes
6401492020FLE249,2020-02-05,0.243,3.039,3.55,4.611,0.116,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.006,2.135,2.276,3.277,0.110,0,Safe,Proven ewe with high-accuracy EBVs
6401492022FLE002,2022-01-23,-0.176,-0.016,-1.363,-0.917,0.055,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Not Recommended,Low growth - needs high-growth ram compensation
6401492023FLE078,2023-02-21,0.305,1.611,0.643,1.592,-0.052,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.037,1.421,0.823,1.767,0.026,0,Safe,Moderate performer - suitable for NCS310
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,External Ram Required,-N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE024,2025-02-20,0.471,2.839,4.58,4.991,0.124,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.120,2.035,2.791,3.467,0.114,0,Safe,Higher BWT - NCS310 will balance
6401492025FLE029,2025-02-21,0.177,2.128,3.645,4.043,0.116,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE047,2025-02-24,0.432,2.948,5.038,5.104,0.042,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.101,2.090,3.020,3.523,0.073,0,Safe,Excellent yearling weight - NCS310 for BWT control
6401492025FLE082,2025-02-28,0.334,2.694,4.383,4.784,0.113,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.052,1.963,2.693,3.363,0.109,0,Safe,Strong balanced growth
6401492025FLE087,2025-03-02,0.352,3.069,5.726,5.898,0.132,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.061,2.150,3.364,3.920,0.118,0,Safe,Top growth performer - consider elite external ram
6401492025FLE008,2025-02-16,0.17,2.722,3.656,4.552,0.168,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
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The recommended_sire_lpn column mixes LPN IDs with free-text placeholders like "External Ram Required". Since this CSV is meant to be machine-readable, use a dedicated field (e.g., recommended_sire_type / requires_external_sire) or a consistent sentinel value, and keep recommended_sire_lpn either blank or an actual LPN.

Suggested change
ewe_lpn,ewe_dob,ewe_bwt,ewe_wwt,ewe_ywt,ewe_pwwt,ewe_nlb,recommended_sire_lpn,sire_bwt,sire_wwt,sire_ywt,sire_pwwt,sire_nlb,predicted_bwt,predicted_wwt,predicted_ywt,predicted_pwwt,predicted_nlb,coi,mating_status,notes
6401492020FLE249,2020-02-05,0.243,3.039,3.55,4.611,0.116,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.006,2.135,2.276,3.277,0.110,0,Safe,Proven ewe with high-accuracy EBVs
6401492022FLE002,2022-01-23,-0.176,-0.016,-1.363,-0.917,0.055,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Not Recommended,Low growth - needs high-growth ram compensation
6401492023FLE078,2023-02-21,0.305,1.611,0.643,1.592,-0.052,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.037,1.421,0.823,1.767,0.026,0,Safe,Moderate performer - suitable for NCS310
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,External Ram Required,-N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE024,2025-02-20,0.471,2.839,4.58,4.991,0.124,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.120,2.035,2.791,3.467,0.114,0,Safe,Higher BWT - NCS310 will balance
6401492025FLE029,2025-02-21,0.177,2.128,3.645,4.043,0.116,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE047,2025-02-24,0.432,2.948,5.038,5.104,0.042,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.101,2.090,3.020,3.523,0.073,0,Safe,Excellent yearling weight - NCS310 for BWT control
6401492025FLE082,2025-02-28,0.334,2.694,4.383,4.784,0.113,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.052,1.963,2.693,3.363,0.109,0,Safe,Strong balanced growth
6401492025FLE087,2025-03-02,0.352,3.069,5.726,5.898,0.132,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.061,2.150,3.364,3.920,0.118,0,Safe,Top growth performer - consider elite external ram
6401492025FLE008,2025-02-16,0.17,2.722,3.656,4.552,0.168,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
ewe_lpn,ewe_dob,ewe_bwt,ewe_wwt,ewe_ywt,ewe_pwwt,ewe_nlb,recommended_sire_lpn,requires_external_sire,sire_bwt,sire_wwt,sire_ywt,sire_pwwt,sire_nlb,predicted_bwt,predicted_wwt,predicted_ywt,predicted_pwwt,predicted_nlb,coi,mating_status,notes
6401492020FLE249,2020-02-05,0.243,3.039,3.55,4.611,0.116,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.006,2.135,2.276,3.277,0.110,0,Safe,Proven ewe with high-accuracy EBVs
6401492022FLE002,2022-01-23,-0.176,-0.016,-1.363,-0.917,0.055,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Not Recommended,Low growth - needs high-growth ram compensation
6401492023FLE078,2023-02-21,0.305,1.611,0.643,1.592,-0.052,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.037,1.421,0.823,1.767,0.026,0,Safe,Moderate performer - suitable for NCS310
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE024,2025-02-20,0.471,2.839,4.58,4.991,0.124,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.120,2.035,2.791,3.467,0.114,0,Safe,Higher BWT - NCS310 will balance
6401492025FLE029,2025-02-21,0.177,2.128,3.645,4.043,0.116,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE047,2025-02-24,0.432,2.948,5.038,5.104,0.042,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.101,2.090,3.020,3.523,0.073,0,Safe,Excellent yearling weight - NCS310 for BWT control
6401492025FLE082,2025-02-28,0.334,2.694,4.383,4.784,0.113,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.052,1.963,2.693,3.363,0.109,0,Safe,Strong balanced growth
6401492025FLE087,2025-03-02,0.352,3.069,5.726,5.898,0.132,6402382024NCS310,FALSE,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.061,2.150,3.364,3.920,0.118,0,Safe,Top growth performer - consider elite external ram
6401492025FLE008,2025-02-16,0.17,2.722,3.656,4.552,0.168,,TRUE,,,,,,,,,,,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram

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Restructured CSV with dedicated requires_external_sire boolean column and kept recommended_sire_lpn for actual LPN IDs or empty for machine readability in commit 1dc777b.

6401492020FLE249,2020-02-05,0.243,3.039,3.55,4.611,0.116,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.006,2.135,2.276,3.277,0.110,0,Safe,Proven ewe with high-accuracy EBVs
6401492022FLE002,2022-01-23,-0.176,-0.016,-1.363,-0.917,0.055,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Not Recommended,Low growth - needs high-growth ram compensation
6401492023FLE078,2023-02-21,0.305,1.611,0.643,1.592,-0.052,6402382024NCS310,-0.231,1.231,1.002,1.942,0.104,0.037,1.421,0.823,1.767,0.026,0,Safe,Moderate performer - suitable for NCS310
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,External Ram Required,-N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
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There is an invalid value -N/A in the sire_bwt column for 6401492025FLE011. This will break numeric parsing and is inconsistent with the other N/A placeholders—use a consistent null representation (e.g., empty, N/A) without a leading minus sign.

Suggested change
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,External Ram Required,-N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram
6401492025FLE011,2025-02-17,0,2.19,2.235,3.523,0.178,External Ram Required,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,N/A,Avoid - Father/Daughter,Sired by NCS310 - must use external ram

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Fixed invalid -N/A value - now uses empty fields for missing data in commit 1dc777b.

Comment on lines 347 to 352
- Priority 2: 6401492022FLE002 (low growth needs compensation)
- Priority 3: 6401492025FLE087 (top ewe — maximize genetic progress)

3. **Breed to NCS310**:
- 6401492020FLE249
- 6401492022FLE002 (only if no high-growth ram available)
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This action item lists 6401492022FLE002 under "Breed to NCS310" even though the earlier recommendation and the CSV mark her as needing an external high-growth ram (NCS310 is described as not recommended for her). Consider moving her to the external-ram list and, if you want to keep a fallback option, label it explicitly as "last resort" to avoid mixed guidance.

Suggested change
- Priority 2: 6401492022FLE002 (low growth needs compensation)
- Priority 3: 6401492025FLE087 (top ewe — maximize genetic progress)
3. **Breed to NCS310**:
- 6401492020FLE249
- 6401492022FLE002 (only if no high-growth ram available)
- Priority 2: 6401492022FLE002 (low growth — requires external high-growth ram; NCS310 only as absolute **last resort**)
- Priority 3: 6401492025FLE087 (top ewe — maximize genetic progress)
3. **Breed to NCS310**:
- 6401492020FLE249

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Moved FLE002 from "Breed to NCS310" list to external ram Priority 2 with "last resort" qualifier in commit 1dc777b.


**Best suited for**:
- Ewes with higher BWT (FLE087, FLE082, FLE047, FLE024)
- First-time lambing ewes (all FLE025 animals)
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The "Best suited for" list mentions "First-time lambing ewes (all FLE025 animals)", but none of the analyzed ewes have an FLE025 prefix/ID. This looks like a mistaken label (likely intended to refer to 2025-born maiden ewes) and could confuse the breeding plan.

Suggested change
- First-time lambing ewes (all FLE025 animals)
- First-time lambing ewes in this analysis group

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Fixed mistaken "FLE025 animals" reference to "first-time lambing ewes in this analysis group" in commit 1dc777b.

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zircote commented Feb 9, 2026

@copilot apply changes based on the comments in this thread

- Add Closes #3 link to report header
- Remove contradictory NCS310 recommendations for his daughters (FLE008, FLE029, FLE011)
- Update COI table to use traffic-light format (Red ≥25%, Green <6.25%)
- Restructure CSV with requires_external_sire column for machine readability
- Fix -N/A typo in CSV (now uses empty fields)
- Move FLE002 from NCS310 breeding list to external ram priority
- Fix reference to "FLE025 animals" (now "first-time lambing ewes in this analysis group")

Co-authored-by: zircote <307960+zircote@users.noreply.github.com>
Copilot AI requested a review from zircote February 9, 2026 15:05
@zircote zircote merged commit fa357c4 into main Feb 9, 2026
@zircote zircote deleted the copilot/update-mating-recommendations branch February 9, 2026 15:05
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2026 Mating Recomendations Weekly Farm Check - Week 6

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