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Update remaining OBR forecasts to March 2026 detailed tables#1514

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MaxGhenis merged 1 commit intomainfrom
update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables
Mar 3, 2026
Merged

Update remaining OBR forecasts to March 2026 detailed tables#1514
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit intomainfrom
update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables

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Summary

Updates the remaining OBR economic forecast parameters from November 2025 to March 2026 EFO detailed forecast tables. This is a follow-up to PR #1512 which updated the main Table A.1 variables but awaited publication of the detailed tables for the remaining variables.

Variables updated

Variable Source table Key changes
CPIH Economy Table 1.7 2026: 2.67% → 2.55%
CPI AHC Derived from CPI/rent 2026: 1.7% → 1.58%, added 2030
Non-labour income Economy Table 1.12 2025: 5.19% → 3.49%, profile reshaped
Per capita mixed income Table 1.12 − population 2025: 0.24% → 0.69%
Per capita non-labour income Table 1.12 − population 2025: 4.47% → 2.75%
Council tax England Expenditure Table 4.1 2025: 7.81% → 7.02%
Council tax Wales Expenditure Table 4.1 2025-30: 5.81% → 7.43-7.73%
Council tax Scotland Expenditure Table 4.1 Unchanged (0.0384)
Mortgage interest Economy Table 1.7 2025: 10.98% → 9.52%, 2030 kept
Rent Economy Table 1.7 Minor adjustments
Household interest income Table 1.12 (proxy) Follows non-labour income

All reference metadata updated from "November 2025" to "March 2026" with correct table citations.

Data sources

Test plan

  • CI tests pass (some test expected values may need updating)
  • Verify values match OBR published tables

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 8b21661 into main Mar 3, 2026
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables branch March 3, 2026 14:18
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