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MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into from
Mar 3, 2026
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Update remaining OBR forecasts to March 2026 detailed tables #1514

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions changelog.d/update-obr-march-2026-detailed-tables.changed.md
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Update remaining OBR economic forecasts to March 2026 EFO detailed tables (CPIH, rent, mortgage interest, council tax, non-labour income, mixed income, household interest income, CPI AHC).
171 changes: 86 additions & 85 deletions policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -257,17 +257,18 @@ obr:
2022-01-01: 0.107
2023-01-01: 0.057
2024-01-01: 0.018
2025-01-01: 0.027
2026-01-01: 0.017
2027-01-01: 0.019
2028-01-01: 0.019
2029-01-01: 0.019
2025-01-01: 0.0266
2026-01-01: 0.0158
2027-01-01: 0.0190
2028-01-01: 0.0190
2029-01-01: 0.0190
2030-01-01: 0.0190
metadata:
unit: /1
label: After housing costs consumer price index growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
- title: ONS CPI weights
href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflationupdatingweightsannexatablesw1tow3
- title: ONS CPI series excluding housing costs
Expand All @@ -281,12 +282,12 @@ obr:
2023-01-01: 0.0679
2024-01-01: 0.0327
# Forecast (2025-2030)
2025-01-01: 0.0393
2026-01-01: 0.0267
2027-01-01: 0.0215
2028-01-01: 0.0208
2029-01-01: 0.0211
2030-01-01: 0.0213
2025-01-01: 0.0388
2026-01-01: 0.0255
2027-01-01: 0.0211
2028-01-01: 0.0204
2029-01-01: 0.0209
2030-01-01: 0.0212
# Long-run assumptions (2031+): CPI + 0.4pp wedge for housing costs
2031-01-01: 0.0230
2032-01-01: 0.0237
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -335,8 +336,8 @@ obr:
unit: /1
label: CPIH growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
- title: OBR long-run RPI-CPI wedge methodology (2031+ values derived from this)
href: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/

Expand All @@ -348,19 +349,19 @@ obr:
2022-01-01: 0.0987
2023-01-01: 0.1215
2024-01-01: 0.0492
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12
2025-01-01: 0.0519
2026-01-01: 0.0565
2027-01-01: 0.0474
2028-01-01: 0.0364
2029-01-01: 0.0302
2030-01-01: 0.0292
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12
2025-01-01: 0.0349
2026-01-01: 0.0397
2027-01-01: 0.0513
2028-01-01: 0.0350
2029-01-01: 0.0301
2030-01-01: 0.0317
metadata:
unit: /1
label: Non-labour income growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

council_tax:
england:
Expand All @@ -369,25 +370,25 @@ obr:
# Outturn (2023-2024)
2023-01-01: 0.051
2024-01-01: 0.051
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
2025-01-01: 0.0781
2026-01-01: 0.0530
2027-01-01: 0.0579
2028-01-01: 0.0565
2029-01-01: 0.0547
2030-01-01: 0.0542
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1
2025-01-01: 0.0702
2026-01-01: 0.0545
2027-01-01: 0.0605
2028-01-01: 0.0615
2029-01-01: 0.0562
2030-01-01: 0.0550
metadata:
unit: /1
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
scotland:
description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Scotland.
values:
# Outturn (2023-2024)
2023-01-01: 0.052
2024-01-01: 0.001
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1
2025-01-01: 0.0384
2026-01-01: 0.0384
2027-01-01: 0.0384
Expand All @@ -397,26 +398,26 @@ obr:
metadata:
unit: /1
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
wales:
description: Growth in the level of council tax receipts in Wales.
values:
# Outturn (2023-2024)
2023-01-01: 0.058
2024-01-01: 0.077
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Expenditure Table 4.1
2025-01-01: 0.0581
2026-01-01: 0.0581
2027-01-01: 0.0581
2028-01-01: 0.0581
2029-01-01: 0.0581
2030-01-01: 0.0581
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Expenditure Table 4.1
2025-01-01: 0.0773
2026-01-01: 0.0743
2027-01-01: 0.0743
2028-01-01: 0.0743
2029-01-01: 0.0743
2030-01-01: 0.0743
metadata:
unit: /1
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

per_capita:
gdp:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -449,19 +450,19 @@ obr:
2022-01-01: 0.0296
2023-01-01: -0.0060
2024-01-01: 0.0273
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth
2025-01-01: 0.0024
2026-01-01: 0.0362
2027-01-01: 0.0374
2028-01-01: 0.0351
2029-01-01: 0.0358
2030-01-01: 0.0364
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth
2025-01-01: 0.0069
2026-01-01: 0.0306
2027-01-01: 0.0371
2028-01-01: 0.0364
2029-01-01: 0.0353
2030-01-01: 0.0361
metadata:
unit: /1
label: Per capita mixed income growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

non_labour_income:
description: Per capita non-labour income year-on-year growth.
Expand All @@ -471,19 +472,19 @@ obr:
2022-01-01: 0.0894
2023-01-01: 0.1084
2024-01-01: 0.0385
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO November 2025, Table 1.12 minus population growth
2025-01-01: 0.0447
2026-01-01: 0.0527
2027-01-01: 0.0437
2028-01-01: 0.0324
2029-01-01: 0.0258
2030-01-01: 0.0247
# Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, Table 1.12 minus population growth
2025-01-01: 0.0275
2026-01-01: 0.0358
2027-01-01: 0.0474
2028-01-01: 0.0309
2029-01-01: 0.0256
2030-01-01: 0.0271
metadata:
unit: /1
label: Per capita non-labour income growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

house_prices:
description: House prices year-on-year growth.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -516,18 +517,18 @@ obr:
2023-01-01: 0.5224
2024-01-01: 0.2730
# Forecast (2025-2030)
2025-01-01: 0.1098
2026-01-01: 0.1435
2027-01-01: 0.1032
2028-01-01: 0.0470
2029-01-01: 0.0466
2025-01-01: 0.0952
2026-01-01: 0.0797
2027-01-01: 0.1040
2028-01-01: 0.0476
2029-01-01: 0.0468
2030-01-01: 0.0553
metadata:
unit: /1
label: Mortgage interest growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

social_rent:
description: Rent year-on-year growth (CPI+1%, one year lagged).
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -557,19 +558,19 @@ obr:
2023-01-01: 0.0575
2024-01-01: 0.0716
# Forecast (2025-2030)
2025-01-01: 0.0546
2025-01-01: 0.0542
2026-01-01: 0.0334
2027-01-01: 0.0311
2028-01-01: 0.0243
2029-01-01: 0.0234
2030-01-01: 0.0254
2027-01-01: 0.0302
2028-01-01: 0.0230
2029-01-01: 0.0238
2030-01-01: 0.0258

metadata:
unit: /1
label: Rent growth
reference:
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, economy, Table 1.7)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

ons:
population:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -645,20 +646,20 @@ ons:
2023-01-01: 0.987 # 86.0/43.3 - 1
2024-01-01: 0.142 # 98.2/86.0 - 1
# Forecast: use OBR non-labour income growth as proxy (Table 1.12)
2025-01-01: 0.0519
2026-01-01: 0.0565
2027-01-01: 0.0474
2028-01-01: 0.0364
2029-01-01: 0.0302
2030-01-01: 0.0292
2025-01-01: 0.0349
2026-01-01: 0.0397
2027-01-01: 0.0513
2028-01-01: 0.0350
2029-01-01: 0.0301
2030-01-01: 0.0317
metadata:
unit: /1
label: Household interest income growth
reference:
- title: ONS National Accounts D.41g - Households interest received (HAXV series)
href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/haxv/ukea
- title: OBR EFO November 2025 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
- title: OBR EFO March 2026 - Non-labour income growth used as proxy for 2025+ (Table 1.12)
href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
private_rental_prices:
UNITED_KINGDOM:
description: Private rental prices year-on-year growth in United Kingdom.
Expand Down