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Bugfix: Where 2030 capacity bounds are distributed to regions by GDP share, use 2025 GDP instead of 2030 GDP to avoid potential infes in non-SSP2 policy runs #1934

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Dec 18, 2024
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Bugfix: Where 2030 capacity bounds are distributed to regions by GDP share, use 2025 GDP instead of 2030 GDP to avoid potential infes in non-SSP2 policy runs #1934

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a0a5316
Merge branch 'develop' of https://github.com/remindmodel/remind into …
Dec 16, 2024
52858b5
Where global capacity bounds are distributed to regions by GDP share,…
Dec 16, 2024
20105ca
where global capacity bounds are distributed by GDP share, use 2025 G…
Dec 17, 2024
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8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions core/bounds.gms
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Expand Up @@ -299,7 +299,7 @@ loop(te$(sameas(te,"ngcc") OR sameas(te,"ngt") OR sameas(te,"gaschp")),
*' set lower and upper bounds for 2025 based on projects annoucements
*' from IEA Hydryogen project database:
*' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database
*' distribute to regions via GDP share
*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025 (we do not use later time steps as they may have different GDPs depending on the scenario)
*' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements
*' 2 GW(el) at least globally in 2025, about operational capacity as of 2023
vm_cap.lo("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 2 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi)
Expand All @@ -310,9 +310,9 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 20 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("

*** bounds on biomass technologies
*' set upper bounds on biomass gasification for h2 production, which is not deployed as of 2025
*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
*' allow for small production of 0.1 EJ/yr at by 2030 for each technology globally, distributed to regions by GDP share in 2025
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2025",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));
*' allow zero vm_deltaCap for bio-H2 up to 2030 to be consistent with above bounds
vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0;
vm_deltaCap.lo(t,regi,"bioh2c","1")$(t.val le 2030) = 0;
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6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions modules/39_CCU/on/bounds.gms
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Expand Up @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ vm_cap.up(t,regi,"h22ch4","1")$(t.val lt 2030) = 0;
*' upper bounds for near-term trends on liquid synfuels (CCU-fuels) 2025 and 2030
*' based on project announcements from IEA database
*' https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-production-and-infrastructure-projects-database
*' distribute to regions via GDP share
*' distribute to regions via GDP share of 2025
*' in future this should be differentiated by region based on regionalized input data of project announcements
*' 0.5 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at minimum in 2025
*' corresponds to projects operational as of 2024
Expand All @@ -35,8 +35,8 @@ vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"MeOH","1")= 5 / pm_cf("2025",regi,"MeOH") / 8760
*' 30 TWh/yr liquid synfuel production globally at maximum in 2030,
*' corresponds to about half of project announcements from IEA database
vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"MeOH","1")= 30 / pm_cf("2030",regi,"MeOH") / 8760
* pm_gdp("2030",regi)
/ sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
* pm_gdp("2025",regi)
/ sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2));


*** switch off CCU in baseline runs (as CO2 capture technologies teCCS are also switched off)
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